Paul the Octopus and variance...

Hats off to Paul the Octopus in Germany for going 6 for 6 in predicting how Germany would fare in each of its world cup matches. He picked the right clam every time. Now if we could just put the symbol for APPL on one box and the symbol for GOOG on the other box.... I'll go out on a limb and predict that Spain will prevail. They beat a very good German team and the outcome was never really in doubt. They had pressure on the Germans from the outset and it was just a matter of time before they scored. I think the same game will unfold against the Dutch. The Dutch absolutely, positively, must score the first goal to have any chance.

I mention variance in the header because it's a term used in poker and the World Series of Poker is going on right now with the preliminary events completed and the main event underway. I played in the last preliminary event, the $2500 No Limit Hold Em event and did not make it to dinner, losing most of my stack with KK against a Canadian internet monkey named Evan Lamprea who thought he was in front with AK when I raised 4X in early position for the first time in two hours. He just shoved it in and prayed with ace high because that is so much easier to do than to have to make a decision on the board, and caught an ace. The vast majority of the time my KK will hold but variance raised her ugly little head and put an ace on the flop.

Variance is also a factor in trading which is the real reason I'm bringing it up. (Ok, aside from kevetching about 23 year old internet idiots.) The big day yesterday was not really a surprise if you had been looking at charts and recognized how much selling pressure had been applied over the previous two weeks. I was short some AAPL 240 puts and long some CME 270 calls. Both July expirations. I have closed the CME calls and rolled the AAPL 240's into the 250's. The market was quite oversold and very much due for a bounce. State Street released a good earnings report and that helped to jump start the day. Yesterday saw a very steady rise on fairly decent volume. Most of the earnings reports for the companies that I trade fall after the July option expiration on the
16th with one exception: GOOG. GOOG reports on Thursday, the 15th after the close. For now I'm content to be short the APPL 250 puts and will add to that short on any pullback. I will very likely go long in some fashion prior to the GOOG earnings release.